What is Nigeria's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Nigeria
Nigeria’s conditional NDC target aligned with 1.5°C pathways
Nigeria’s conditional target from its 2021 NDC is aligned with 1.5°C compatible pathways (when excluding LULUCF). Given how few historical emissions Nigeria has emitted, 1.5°C compatible pathways still allow for a small increase in emissions – to 26% above 2010 levels, or to 375 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030. Further international support would be necessary for Nigeria to achieve its conditional target.
Nigeria's total GHG emissions MtCO₂e/yr
*These pathways reflect the level of mitigation ambition needed domestically to align the country with a cost-effective breakdown of the global emissions reductions in 1.5ºC compatible pathways. For developing countries, achieving these reductions may well rely on receiving significant levels of international support. In order to achieve their 'fair share' of climate action, developed countries would also need to support emissions reductions in developing countries.
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Graph description
The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. Emissions data is presented in global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.
Methodology (excluding LULUCF)
Data References (excluding LULUCF)
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Investing in fossil gas increases risk of stranded assets
Nigeria’s Energy Transition Plan targets a 10 GW increase in fossil gas capacity by 2030 before decreasing to meet Nigeria’s 2060 net zero emissions target. Adding additional fossil fuel capacity would require deeper decarbonisation elsewhere, either in Nigeria or internationally, potentially causing delays and increasing the costs of transition. In analysed 1.5°C pathways, fossil gas is almost entirely phased out of the power sector by 2045, with electricity needs met by renewables instead.
Trade barriers introduce uncertainty, threaten progress on wind and solar power
Analysed pathways show Nigeria reaching at least 23 and up to 70 GW of total renewables capacity in 2030, exceeding its set target of 17 GW of total renewables capacity with investments requirements of up to USD 11bn per year between 2026-2030. This rollout may be slowed down by the recently announced ‘Nigeria First Policy’, which aims to boost local manufacturing. However this is likely to result in trade barriers on renewable energy technologies, potentially increasing costs and reducing imports.